Tuesday, 19 January 2010 22:55

Ukraine, democracy-positive

Paweł Zerka

High turnout, no electoral fraud – the first round of presidential elections in Ukraine was a success of democracy. However, in the coming weeks Ukraine is in for two more tests. First, there must be no trouble in the second round, Then, establishing good relations between the President and Prime Minister will become a priority. If Ukrainian democracy passes also these two hurdles, then the EU-Ukraine relations should gather a new momentum. 

Victory of the revolution
Against expectations, the citizens of Ukraine -allegedly disillusioned with democracy- did not fall into apathy. The turnout in the first round was 67 per cent, not so much lower than in 2004 (75%) and actually quite high according to European standards. What is more, the OSCE observers did not find any sign of a serious fraud. Russians, and even Georgians, can only look at Ukrainians with envy.

This unquestionable victory of democracy is in itself a proof that the Orange Revolution left a durable heritage. Neither the current political turmoil, nor the defeat of Viktor Jushchenko –one of the Revolution’s heroes- can contradict this success. The Orange Revolution should still be considered a triumph even if its second icon, Yulia Timoshenko, loses in the second round, while the main rival of the Democrats in the 2004 election, Viktor Yanukovich, takes the office of the president. But Ukrainian democracy must still pass two more exams. 

A dangerous draw
First of all, the second round (on February 7th) must serve as a confirmation of what the first round has shown: that Ukraine is already a stable democracy. The main threat lies in a possible “draw” – a situation in which the difference between the two candidates is less than 2-3%. In line with most predictions, Timoshenko is capable of catching up with Yanukovich. If the result of the election is a draw, then we can imagine that the loser might accuse the rival side of an electoral fraud and question the official results. Even if we are spared the scenes similar to those in 2004, the final result will be decided by the Court in which both of the candidates have their supporters.

Of course, legal resolution of electoral conflicts is not in itself wrong, just the opposite – it is a necessary element of a functioning democracy. But there is a risk that the electoral process is unduly prolonged, thus reaffirming a substantial part of voters in a conviction that they have been cheated.

Who will govern?
Test number two will be establishing relations between the new President and the government, a pre-condition of any political and economic stabilization. The results of the first round tell a lot about possible scenarios.

If Yanukovich is elected president, his power will be very limited by the government of Timoshenko. This is why the candidate of the Party of Regions might consider entering the alliance with his former rival, the departing president Viktor Yushchenko. If the entourage of Yushchenko joins the coalition led by the Party of Regions, a new president-friendly government will be created or preliminary elections will be held. However, quite paradoxically, Yanukovich might prefer not to make any move until the 2011 elections. Thus he will present himself as a patient and conciliatory politician, and at the same time he will throw on Timoshenko all the blame related to governing in the hardest time of crisis. Moreover, he will be able to use this time to put his party in order. 

In the case of Timoshenko, her only chance is in an alliance with Serhij Tigipko – and this for two reasons. On one hand, the current Prime Minister has not managed to reduce the 10 percent distance separating her from Yanukovich. On the other, Tigipko obtained a much better result than expected: 13 percent compared to 5 to 10 percent in the pre-election surveys. He has already announced his readiness to cooperate with any of the two candidates. It would be stupid of Timoshenko to disregard this offer. If Tigipko supports Timoshenko before the second round, and if she wins the election, then he will probably obtain the office of Prime Minister or one of the key Ministers. However, the future of the current government will largely depend on what will Yushchenko do: if he leaves the government, then it will find it difficult to build a majority. 

EU-Ukraine – new chapter?
The European Commission has already praised Ukraine on the course of the first round. It also announced that “the European Union looks forward to the further deepening of EU-Ukraine relations”. This is a positive sign which shows that the EU is fully aware of the opportunity that this election creates – regardless of its winner. If Ukraine manages to pass the remaining two exams, then we should expect a quick opening of a new chapter in the EU-Ukraine relations. However, in both cases it will not be an easy task.